這位Hal Brands在Bloomberg的文章都在這裏
https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ATKjVhct25c/hal-brands
新聞引用的是這篇文章
裡面提到台灣的部份很少
非常少
A US Venezuela Victory May Help China Gain an Edge
https://tinyurl.com/3frf7bk9
The daring raid that snagged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was an
awesome display of the capabilities that make the US military the world’s
best by far. It serves as proof that President Donald Trump’s corollary to
the Monroe Doctrine is real, and reminds us of his penchant for using force in
novel, surprising ways.
這場擒獲委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜洛（Nicolás Maduro）的大膽突襲，
令人敬畏地展示了美軍之所以能遠超他國、稱霸全球的實力。這證明了唐納·
川普總統對《門羅主義》的推論是玩真的，也提醒了我們他偏好以新穎且出
人意料的方式動用武力。
Trump has, undeniably, struck down a bad leader — and struck a blow that
matters in the fight for global power. Yet the raid in Caracas also raises
harder questions about Venezuela’s future, the clash for influence in the
Western Hemisphere, and the rules of conduct in a disordered world.
無可否認，川普擊倒了一位糟糕的領導人，並在全球權力鬥爭中打出了關鍵
一擊。然而，這場在卡拉卡斯的突襲也引發了更棘手的問題，涉及委內瑞拉
的未來、西半球影響力的衝突，以及在動盪的世界秩序中的行為準則。
The operation’s success, with no reported US fatalities, is testament to the
ability of America’s intelligence community to find hard targets and America
’s military to strike them. It also gives Trump a trophy in his Western
Hemisphere campaign.
行動的成功且據報無美軍傷亡，證明了美國情報體系發現困難目標的能力，
以及美軍精準打擊目標的實力。這也為川普在西半球的政治版圖上增添了一
座戰利品。
Since taking office last year, Trump has used various measures — diplomatic
pressure on Panama, support for friendly rulers in Argentina and El Salvador,
escalating coercion against Maduro, lethal strikes against suspected narco-
traffickers — to reassert US primacy in the Americas.
自去年上任以來，川普採取了多種措施——對巴拿馬施加外交壓力、支持阿
根廷和薩爾瓦多的友好領導人、升級對馬杜洛的脅迫，以及對疑似毒販進行
致命打擊——以重新確立美國在美洲的主導地位。
Maduro seems likely to spend many years in a US prison. His fate is a stark
warning of how seriously this administration takes the threat of hostile Latin
American leaders that seek ties to Beijing and Moscow — a fact Trump
emphasized after the strike.
馬杜洛看來很可能在美國監獄中度過多年。他的下場是一個嚴厲的警告，顯
示本屆政府如何嚴肅看待那些尋求與北京和莫斯科建立聯繫的敵對拉丁美洲
領導人之威脅——川普在行動後也強調了這一點。
The raid also showcased Trump’s preferred way of war. In June, Trump used
misdirection and disinformation to disguise preparations for his strike on
Iran’s nuclear facilities. In recent days, his administration ran the same
play again.
這次突襲也展示了川普偏好的戰爭方式。今年六月，川普利用誤導和虛假信
息來掩護對伊朗核設施打擊的準備工作。近日，他的政府再次上演了同樣的
戲碼。
Reports that Trump would settle for a blockade of Venezuelan oil, or that he
was preparing to negotiate, were presumably meant to give Maduro a false sense
of security. Trump’s way of war involves maximizing secrecy and surprise
that accentuate US advantages — and clear the way for precise uses of force
that allow the president to start and end conflicts on his own terms.
有關川普將滿足於對委內瑞拉石油進行封鎖，或正準備談判的報導，推測是
為了給馬杜洛一種虛假的安全感。川普的戰爭之道包括將保密和奇襲最大化
，以凸顯美國的優勢——並為精準動用武力掃清障礙，讓總統能根據自己的
條件開始並結束衝突。
There is, additionally, another parallel to Trump’s Iran strike: This attack
shows the limits of solidarity among the autocratic powers.
此外，這與川普對伊朗的打擊還有另一個相似之處：這次攻擊顯示了專制強
權之間團結的局限性。
Russia and China are howling about violations of Venezuelan sovereignty. They
have sustained Maduro for many years. But they can only offer thoughts and
prayers in the face of determined American power projection in the Western
Hemisphere — just as they couldn’t or wouldn’t save the Iranian regime from
military humiliation at the hands of Israel and the US.
俄羅斯和中國正對侵犯委內瑞拉主權的行為大聲疾呼。他們支撐了馬杜洛多
年。但在美國於西半球展現堅定的武力投射面前，他們只能提供精神支持和
祈禱——就像他們無法或不願從以色列和美國造成的軍事羞辱中拯救伊朗政
權一樣。
There’s much to applaud, then, in a tactical success that will likely have
real strategic benefits. There are also uncertainties ahead.
因此，這場很可能帶來實質戰略利益的戰術成功非常值得讚賞。但未來也充
滿不確定性。
The first involves the future of Venezuela. Trump has achieved leadership
change, but not regime change, since many hardline figures in Maduro’s
government remain.
第一點涉及委內瑞拉的未來。川普實現了領導人的更換，而非政權的更迭，
因為馬杜洛政府中的許多強硬派人物依然在位。
Trump has pledged that the US will “run the country” to oversee a democratic
transition; he has threatened additional attacks if regime remnants don’t
play along. But even if this squeeze play works, any political transition
could be long and messy, since it involves undoing the damage — economic,
political, social — from nearly 30 years of Chavismo. We’ll see how much
appetite an anti-nation-building president has for that.
川普承諾美國將「治理該國」以監督民主轉型；他威脅如果政權餘孽不配合
，將發動額外攻擊。但即便這種高壓策略奏效，任何政治轉型都可能是漫長
且混亂的，因為這涉及修復近 30 年「查維斯主義」（Chavismo）所造成的
經濟、政治和社會破壞。我們將觀察這位反對「國家建設」（
nation-building）的總統對此有多少耐心。
Second, the great-power fight for the Western Hemisphere is far from over.
China has spent decades investing in infrastructure, trade and other
relationships with Latin American countries. The monuments to its influence
include mega-ports in Peru and a massive space-tracking station in Bolivia.
Its police and security ties have been expanding, as well.
第二，大國在西半球的爭奪遠未結束。中國數十年來一直在拉丁美洲國家投
資基礎設施、貿易及其他關係。其影響力的象徵包括秘魯的巨型港口和玻利
維亞的大型太空追蹤站。其警察和安全聯繫也一直在擴張。
Beijing, coincidentally, released a paper on its involvement in Latin America
in December. The thrust of it was that the global balance of power is changing
in ways that favor the expansion of Chinese influence.
巧合的是，北京在 12 月發布了一份關於其參與拉丁美洲事務的白皮書。其
核心主旨是全球權力平衡正在發生變化，其方式有利於中國影響力的擴張。
Trump has served notice that there’s only one great power in the Americas,
when it comes to military muscle; Latin American countries will surely be even
more cautious about offering Beijing access to anything that looks like a
base, at least for now. But China will keep seeking economic, technological
and political ties in the region, as part of a play for long-term advantage.
川普已經發出告示，在美洲軍事武力方面，只有一個大國；至少在目前，拉
丁美洲國家在向北京提供任何看起來像軍事基地的設施時，肯定會更加謹慎
。但中國將繼續在該地區尋求經濟、技術和政治聯繫，作為爭取長期優勢策
略的一部分。
Finally, bad actors may exploit this precedent. The Trump administration
argues, plausibly, that this operation was legal because Maduro was under US
indictment. It can point to the invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose Manuel
Noriega, as evidence that Washington has done this before.
最後，惡意行為者可能會利用這一先例。川普政府振振有詞地辯稱，由於馬
杜洛受到美國起訴，這次行動是合法的。它可以指出 1989 年入侵巴拿馬以
廢黜諾瑞嘉（Manuel Noriega）的往事，作為華盛頓以前也這麼做過的證據。
Yet if Beijing has been watching closely, perhaps that’s because Trump’s
tactics — blockading a hostile country, decapitating its leadership — could
ultimately be useful against Taiwan.
然而，如果北京一直在密切關注，或許是因為川普的戰術——封鎖敵對國家
、斬首其領導層——最終可能被用於對付台灣。
In a unipolar post-Cold War era, the US didn’t have to worry about rivals
emulating its tactics. In today’s more challenging environment, its example
might, one day, be used in nasty ways.
在冷戰後的單極時代，美國不必擔心對手效仿其戰術。在當今更具挑戰性的
環境中，美國所立下的榜樣，有朝一日可能會被以惡劣的方式利用。