WTPN21 PGTW 181400
（…）
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 147.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS),
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES
AND INTENSIFIES WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
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目前這預測路徑再偏一點有機會發海警吧！